ГЛОБАЛНИ АСПЕКТИ НА ХИПОТЕЗАТА ЗА ДВОЙНИЯ ДЕФИЦИТ
Резюме
Тествана е хипотезата за двойния дефицит – причинно-следствената връзка между бюджетния дефицит и дефицита по текуща сметка за 188 държави през периода 1980-2014 г. Получените резултати показват, че е налице комплексно влияние върху динамиката на текущата сметка, което не може да се обясни само с динамиката на една променлива или ако това е възможно, то тази променлива не е бюджетният баланс. Установява се, че средната стойност на бюджетния баланс е положителна само за 36 държави (във всички останали 152 тя е отрицателна), т.е. хипотезата за двойния дефицит се потвърждава. Това се подкрепя и от VAR анализа – хипотезата за двойния дефицит е валидна за всичките групи коефициен- ти с изключение на тези за Тувалу, Ливан, Еритрея и Екваториална Гвинея, които са с екстремни коефициенти (над -10).
Ключови думи
JEL класификация
Литература (библиография)
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