VOLATILITY SPILLOVER AND PANDEMIC – ANALYSIS OF SELECTED SECTORAL INDICES IN INDIA
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Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted economies worldwide, and it has been reflected in their stock markets, as well. The effect was evident in the Indian stock markets, yet the nature and level of this impact are not very clear. This paper examines the short- and long-term spillover in the volatility between coronavirus cases on the broader market index, Nifty 50, and the indices of selected sectors: information technology, healthcare, and pharmaceuticals. Data for the period from January 2020 to July 2022 has been analyzed. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model was used for analyzing the volatility spillover of coronavirus cases on Nifty 50, Nifty IT, Nifty Healthcare, and Nifty Pharma. The results show that there has been a significant long-term volatility spillover of infections on the broader market index, Nifty 50. However, there is no long-term persistence of COVID-19 on the sectoral indices. Only Pharma and Healthcare have exhibited significant short-term persistence. All the indices were negatively correlated with case numbers. Even though the sectoral indices did not exhibit significant long-term volatility spillover, they were positively correlated with the broader market index, Nifty 50, which in turn showed the significant long-term persistence of COVID-19. The results of the study are useful to policymakers and investors to understand the level of market impact due to the pandemic.
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