Articles

• Stati Statev — University of National and World Economy

  The Interaction between the Banking System and the Real Economy (Part Two: Descriptive and Economic Analysis)

  Abstract ▾ PDF

  The second part of the study of the interaction between the banking system and the real economy focuses on the results of the empirical analysis of Bulgaria for the period 1991-2006. The analysis is based on the theoretical and methodological approach, presented in Part One, adapted especially for investigating the Bulgarian economy in the above-mentioned period. The article highlights the basic trends and results of the analysis, without extensive proofs. The empirical analysis consists of two sections. The first section studies the behavior of the real economy and the banking sector by means of a descriptive analysis, highlighting the available interrelations and dependences. The second section identifies the short-term and long-term dependences and causalities between development of the banking sector and the dynamics of the real economy by means of econometric modeling, pointing out the key mechanisms for exchange of effects between them and estimating the contribution and the impact of each variable in the future.

• Iskra Beleva — Economic Research Institute аt BAS

  European Job Crisis Curbing Policies

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  The anti-crisis policy of the EU and EU members has been analyzed in order to reduce the negative effects of the contemporary global crisis on the labor markets. This is a monitoring of the scale of the crisis on the quantity and quality parameters of the labor markets in the European countries and in Bulgaria with comments on the effects of the short-term policies to overcome the initial crisis shocks. The palliative nature of these policies and the necessity of up-to-date transition to structured-based policies are underlined. The mix of short-term anti-crisis measures and the fundamental structural changes in the labor market is the successful strategy to restructure the labor markets, in order to achieve a higher labor productivity, higher competitiveness and more dynamic economic growth.

• Polya Angelova — University of Economics – Varna

  Modeling the Farm Distribution in Bulgaria between 1897-2005

  Abstract ▾ PDF

  Alternative modeling patterns of empirical distribution of the farms according to the dimensions of the plots of land are proposed pursuant to the information from the census of landed property and the farms in Bulgaria between 1897 - 2005. Three modeling functions are applied with graphs close to the empirical distribution curves: exponential distribution, Pareto distribution and the left cut common distribution. The main characteristics of the above distributions are investigated. The parameters of the three functions are assessed by means of the methods of moments with argumentation of selection. The theoretical frequencies of each monitoring are established, evaluating the correlation between the empirical and theoretical distributions. Conclusions are made regarding the characteristics of distribution, according to the ultimate asymmetric shape and the their effect on the state of the contemporary agriculture in Bulgaria.

• Ilina Lilova

  Impact of the Currency Board System on the course of International Economic Crises

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  The development of the international economic crises is investigated in countries with currency board compared to countries with central banks. The couples of countries: Argentina - Brazil (at the time of the crisis in Mexico) and Hong Kong - Singapore (at the time of the crisis in SE Asia) are studied. The mechanisms are derived, due to which the countries with currency board suffer stronger collapse during the crises, and recover more slowly. The external shocks reduce considerably the growth in economies with currency board, resulting in higher unemployment rates and quicker drop in investments, aggravation of the foreign trade balance. It is mainly due to the fixed exchange rate, the inability of the governments to pursue a monetary policy and the vulnerable confidence of the economic entities in the stability of the currency board. Conclusions are made with recommendations for Bulgaria under the conditions of global economic crisis.

• Rossitsa Chobanova — Economic Research Institute аt BAS

  Ideas for Economic Prosperity in the Works of Academician Ivan Geshov

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  The article systemizes and characterizes the problems, which concern emancipation of the Bulgarian national economy after liberation from the Ottoman imperia. The sources used are not well known scientific articles of academician Ivan Geshov (20.02.1849-11.03.1924), president of the Bulgarian academy of sciences (1898 - 1924). The article defines the theoretical background and recommendations of the author for policy makers in area of identification of the role of the state in modernization of the national economy development, as well as the role of cooperative and collaborative modes of organization of the work, incl. self management, productivity and position of the land, how to define the national wealth of Bulgaria, and the tax system. At the end the Geshov ideas for development of national economy are assumed.